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  • Writer's pictureRobert Baharian

This One Chart...Does the US President control the stock market

Updated: Oct 18, 2020

The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. - Donald J. Trump

You may scoff at Mr Trump's comments. Absurd. Right? How can one individual have the power to influence, or even control such a thing. Yet today, and in the same breath, investors are constantly chattering and speculating about the upcoming 2020 US Election. Investors are scurrying and shuffling their portfolio in speculation, whilst their anxiety builds.

In this week's This One Chart, we look at the four year performance of the US stock market following each US Election since 1988.

In only two terms, under the Presidency of George W. Bush (2000 and 2004), did investors lose money (excluding dividends) after four years in the stock marker - which was primarily driven by the tech-wreck.

That's a 25% probability investors lose after four year, and a 75% probably investors gain - regardless of who the President is.

Investors are mocking the current US President for such comments, knowing full well the President does not control the stock market. Yet they're acting like the President does control the stock market by the way they're acting in advance of the US Presidential Election. So which one is it?


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