This One Chart...The great rotation
Have you ever sat back and reflected on the investment decisions you've made and how they've played out? Was it a good decision or a bad decision? Do you have a method or process to assess whether something has been successful or otherwise? This year continues to surprise us all. Investors continue to be humbled by the greater market, and some just don't seem to learn their lessons.
Last week, Pfizer announced their COVID-19 vaccine being over 90% effective. In fact, at the time of writing this, Moderna's trial data shows its COVID-19 vaccine nears 95% effective. White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci had said a vaccine that is 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable.
What you would expect to unfold on such news did. On the day of Pfizer's announcement, shares in Carnival jumped almost +40%, Norwegian Cruise up +25%, Delta Airlines up +15%, Bank of America up +13%, Disney up +12%. The same day, shares in Amazon fell -5%, Netflix fell -9%, Zoom fell -17%, and Microsoft fell -4%.
To make things even harder for investor, the news of a vaccine came at a market peak. Yet another feather in the cap for the market.
If 2020 has taught investors anything, its that investors need to focus their efforts and energies on things they can control, because very clearly, investors are not very good at predicting the future. In fact, they suck. Investors need to have a process, a methodology, a game plan, and a firm belief in their system. Because if you leave it to your gut feel, or how you anticipate things will play out, or wait until the 'dust settles', you will lose.
The market doesn't give a sh*t about what you think.