The Most Expensive Game of Golf You’ve Ever Played

Last week I wrote an article on investing following a speeding infringement. I received quite a number of positive responses to this note – thank you. I also received a number of questions on the concept I talked about in my blog, that is, compound interest and market timing. I touched on this topic a little while back, but let me give it another go.

Have you ever played golf and placed a bet on each hole? You know, everyone places a small amount of money on each hole, and the winner on each hole takes the lot? Pretty simple, and a bit of fun. Have you ever played this game whilst doubling the amount of money you bet on each hole? Not a big deal…start with 10 cents a hole, and double this amount for 18 holes. Any idea what the number is on the 18th hole? Before reading any further, just take a guess, quickly, don’t take too long!

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$13,107.20! Ridiculous, right!?

How on earth does this happen I hear you ask? Here’s the above table in a chart.

Notice how nothing happens for a long time, the all of a sudden, BOOM, the amount explodes. This my friends is compound investing – the eighth wonder of the world.

If you think that all you need to know is which way the stock market is going in order to make money, think again. Talk to any successful business owner or investor, it’s more about being disciplined, having a game plan, and taking the long view.

Meet John – he’s the world’s greatest stock picker. He only buys when the stock market index is trading at 52-week lows, and assuming they are 17% below his last purchase. Meet Jane – she’s the world’s worst stock picker. She invests $2,000 only at market peaks beginning in 1970, when she’s 22 years of age. She increases her investment by $2,000 per decade – $4,000 per year during the 80’s, $6,000 a year during the 90’s etc. She retires at age 65.

The results? Hands down winner is John, right? The results of this experiment (thanks to Ben Carlson) may surprise you. John does quite well, as you would expect. But the results are very similar. You’d think John’s portfolio would be multiples of Jane’s as he was buying at market lows, and Jane at market highs, however this is not the case. Why? Compound interest.

Jump on any online calculator and calculate the capitalised interest on a 30 year loan. It’s okay, I’ve done for you. A $500,000 loan, with an interest rate of 5%, accumulates interest of $966,279.60. Think about that for a second – that’s only the interest. Imagine compounding capital and interest on your stock investment! The reason John misses out on the benefit of compounding, is because he’s out of the market for long periods of time. Carlson clearly states in his analysis, “Short-term moves in and out of the market don’t matter nearly as much if you have a long-time horizon. Thinking long-term increases your probability for success in the stock market while the day-to-day noise gets drowned out by discipline and compound interest.”

The strategy is so simple, requires no insight into the future, yet it is so powerful, and actually exists – unlike the perfect market timer. The catch? It takes a long time, and it’s b-o-r-i-n-g! The irony is however, that the group of people who have the greatest capacity to absorb the market’s volatility, are the same group of people who seem to be the least interested in it.