It was over 150 years ago Admiral Robert FitzRoy took his own life. Today FitzRoy is primarily remembered as the captail of HMS Beagle during Charles Darwin’s famous voyage in the 1830. However, during his lifetime FitzRoy found celebrity not from his time at sea but from his pioneering daily weather predictions, which he called by a new name of his own invention – “forecasts”.
Discovering how seasons worked, and understanding that winter came around once a year, has helped humans thrive for centuries.
Financial markets, not dissimilar to the weather, goes through patterns. And winter, is a harsh season for both. The current bull market has been running for over 10 years now, making it one of the longest in history. As summer doesn’t last forever, neither do bull markets. By understanding how the seasons of financial markets work will give you an enormous edge over the average investor.
The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.
– Warren Buffett
Here are 7 facts you need to understand and remember about the stock market.
Fact #1: On average, corrections happen once per year
For more than a century, the market has seen close to one correction (a decline of 10% or more) per year. In other words, corrections are a regular part of financial seasons – and you can expect to see as many corrections as birthdays throughout your life.
The average correction looks something like this:
- 54 days long
- 13.5% market decline
- Occurs once per year
The uncertainty of a correction can prompt people to make big mistakes – but in reality, most corrections are over before you know it. If you hold on tight, it’s likely the storm will pass.
Fact #2: Fewer than 20% of all corrections turn into a bear market
When the stock market starts tumbling, it can be tempting to abandon ship by selling assets and moving into cash. However, doing so could be a big mistake.
You would likely be selling all of your assets at a low, right before the market rebounds!
Why? Fewer than 20% of corrections turn into bear markets. Put another way, 80% of corrections are just short breaks in otherwise intact bull markets – meaning that selling early would make you miss the rest of the upward trend.
Fact #3: Nobody can predict consistently whether the market will rise or fall
The media perpetuates a myth that, if you’re smart enough, you can predict the market’s moves and avoid its downdrafts.
But the reality is: no one can time the market.
During the current nine year bull market, there have been dozens of calls for stock market crashes from even very seasoned investors. None of these calls have come true, and if you’d have listened to these experts, you would have missed the upside.
The best opportunities come in times of maximum pessimism.
– John Templeton
Fact #4: The market has always risen, despite short-term setbacks
Market drops are a very regular occurrence. For example, the S&P 500 – the main index that tracks the U.S. stock market – has fallen on average 14.2% at least one point each year between 1980-2015.
Like winter, these drops are a part of the market’s seasons. Over this same period of time, despite these temporary drops, the market ended up achieving a positive return 27 of 36 years. That’s 75% of the time!
Fact #5: Historically, bear markets have happened every three to five years
In the 115 year span between 1900-2015, there have been 34 bear markets.
But bear markets don’t last. Over that timeframe, they’ve varied in length from 45 days to 694 days, but on average they lasted about a year.
Fact #6: Bear markets become bull markets
Do you remember how fragile the world seemed in 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall?
When you pictured the future, did it seem dark and dangerous? Or did it seem like the good times were just around the corner and the party was about to begin?
The fact is, once a bear market ends, the following 12 months can see crucial market gains.
Fact #7: The greatest danger is being out of the market
From 1996 through 2015, the S&P 500 returned an average of 8.2% a year.
But if you missed out on the top 10 trading days during that period, your returns dwindled to just 4.5% a year.
It gets worse! If you missed out on the top 20 trading days, your returns were just 2.1%.
And if you missed out on the top 30 trading days? Your returns vanished into thin air, falling all the way to zero!
You can’t win by sitting on the bench. You have to be in the game. To put it another way, fear isn’t rewarded. Courage is.
– Tony Robbins
Source: Visual Capitalist, Tony Robbins, Peter Mallouk, S&P